The Ammo Problem

[muggsy]

Word from my LGS

Ammo in the next 12 months

We all know the situation with ammunition is terrible, and it is getting worse by the week.

Some facts:

Last week I was about to order 35,000 rounds of .22. They were then in the “120-Day Delivery” margin of expectation. I waited a day to order, and, the following day I was told that I should now expect 6 months to a year to get them. If I waited any longer it will go into the “Out-of-Stock-Not-Accepting Orders” margin of expectation.

I talked to a personal friend connected to the ammunition industry at the highest level. I shared with him that I thought the shortage was “fishy” and I that I felt that something was not right. This is the information I received:
The ammunition manufacturing industry got hit hard right after the elections. It got quickly to the point where they could just manufacture enough to load store shelves but had no reserves left.

When Sandy Hook and Aurora events hit the news the shelves were emptied, with no reserve to fill them in. Take for example .22 LR ammunition. The industry as a whole (all manufacturers combined) is setup to produce 4,200,000,000 (4.2 Billions) .22 LR annually. That is running all the machines, full capacity all the time, all manufacturers together. There is NOTHING they can do to produce more. That corresponds to 230,137 cartridge per State per day, which is 460 bricks of 500 .22 LR per day per State. That means that if less than 50 people per day in each State are buying 10 bricks of .22, it is enough to dry up the entire supply as it is being manufactured.

Now . . . think of how many Millions of us are seeking ammo right now. I was asked to picture the Ammunition stores as an ocean and rivers that has been completely dried up. And each time a drop hits the ground, it dries up right away.

What to expect from the industry as a whole for the coming year

This is what to expect, as per what I was told, by someone high up and whom has experienced four ammo rushes in his 40 year career in the business.

It will be over a year before things start come down.
First to come back will be reloading components, starting with powder, and then some projectiles. Then the primers will come back, starting with specific types and brand, and then latter the more common and demanded types. Then center fire ammo will start to come back, generally a caliber at a time. The LAST two things to come back will be .22LR and 223 for two reasons: 1) the demand is so great, and 2) military and LE use a LOT of 223. In light of all of this . . .

I have reduced the round-count in the shooting classes I teach.
Some of the classes do not include ammunition anymore.
I do not promise delivery dates anymore on ammunition.
I stock up all that I can find.
I am more patient waiting for orders.
What you should do . . .
If you find ammo and it is expensive . . . just think that it is about to become even more expensive and even almost impossible to get.

Please don't shoot the messenger

[RRP]

A dire outlook, isn't it? And I thought things were starting to loosen up a little.



The industry as a whole (all manufacturers combined) is setup to produce 4,200,000,000 (4.2 Billions) .22 LR annually.


I hope that number is right. It's about twice the annual production reported by Wikipedia. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/.22_Long_Rifle#Popularity)

[wyntrout]

A lot of "entrepreneurs" are sucking up all that they can and the there are the true hoarders who can't get enough.

I still think that Walmart made some deal with the devil to get him off their back for a while.

Obummer got them there for some reason in those early meetings on gun control... though it was probably called something else.

I'm not running out of anything soon, but I'm going to cut back on shooting as much on trips to the range. The LGS may stop letting me get the one allocated box of ammo because they want people to buy range time and have at least a box of ammo to shoot. I guess 250-round sessions are over! Dang! It goes so fast with those double-stack-mag pistols!

Wynn:D

[certified106]

Thanks for sharing info...... Guess I need to start finding other hobbies since it looks like my range time is going to start decreasing! Glad it's almost time to start fishing.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

[wyntrout]

Slingshots and gravel or marbles or ball bearings or whatever. There's always something to shoot in those.

I haven't looked at pellets for my .22 pellet gun. It's a Gamo .22 shotgun/rifle, but the "shotgun" is really weak and i never really got serious trying to "sight" it in with the cheap BSA "dot" sight that I bought for it... since the thing came with nothing but the front bead sight.

This thing is more powerful than my first .22 break action Winchester that was around 550 fps. I killed snakes, turtles, and pigeons at 30 to 50 yards with it. This is closer to 800 fps, I think.

Wynn:)

[OldLincoln]

I tell you guys that the LaserLyte can make up at least half of you "training" shooting. Maybe you can make a device that you can grab onto to give your hand a big kick to fake recoil.

[chrish]

Yep, gonna be looking at a laser light and probably a bow or cross-bow for the range. Mine has 2 archery ranges in addition to the pistol and rifle ranges. Gotta get outside and have fun sometime. Guess it might also be time to hit the trail and do some backpacking as well. It'll keep me off the range and burning ammo.

I guess the BIG QUESTION is...will it get any worse? I also thought it was getting better, a little. If it's gonna continue to trickle in like it has been, I should be able to maintain my current levels. If it's gonna get worse...ugh...

While I thought the local places were getting a little better, I will say online bulk orders are almost non-existent. SGAMMO has been a dry well for the last month or more. Last time I saw much of significance there was in January right after my last bulk order.

[wyattninek]

I got some green tip steel core 5.56/223 840 rounds in an ammo can for $800 on gunbroker..if anyones interested lemme know and Ill end it..

[muggsy]

My only salvation is that I have a lot of ammo and reload. That should keep me going short term. My biggest fear is that some of the ranges will shut down because of the ammo shortage. It's hard to pay the light bill when no one is shooting. It sounds like the ammo manufacturers could stand to increase their capacity to manufacture. Do I hear opportunity knocking for a new ammo manufacturer?

[downtownv]

Do I hear opportunity knocking for a new ammo manufacturer?

What would be the investment equipment/costs for hi capacity equipment and what regulations would be required?
Raise money thru sales of stock and set up selling chain from reneges/Manufactures DOWN to Ranges to consumer. No Gov: No LEO sales let the existing guys continue with that....
:amflag:

[RRP]

At the moment, there is opportunity (sufficient demand) for additional production capacity. But is it sustainable?

[downtownv]

The trick is to convince the "NEW" gun owners to hoard! And sell to them!

[certified106]

The trick is to convince the "NEW" gun owners to hoard! And sell to them!

I think most of them are pretty convinced to hoard already!

Sent from my DROID X2 using Tapatalk 2

[GROTMAN]

Things are so bad...almost sunk to this..:o

Yesterday I lucked out and was able to buy several cases of ammo. On the way home I stopped at the gas station where a drop-dead gorgeous blonde was filling up her car at the next pump.
She looked at the ammo in the back of my truck and said in a very sexy voice, "I'm a big believer in barter, big boy".
"Would you be interested in trading sex for ammo?"
I thought a few seconds and asked, "what kinda ammo ya got?" ;)

[wyntrout]

I don't think hoard is a word in their vocabulary... they're still trying to find ammo to shoot in guns they've gotten for Christmas... or had for years! I couldn't believe the prices at the gun show yesterday... $27+ for a box of 9mm FMJ and danged near that for some 100-round boxes of .22... or more! I hope they choke on it!

Wynn:)

[Glock23]

I live about 5 minutes from the Winchester plant/factory in Illinois, and I do most of my shooting at their range. No range fees, but you have to buy/shoot their ammo, and you can't take any home with you.

Every time I've gone before, it was $17 for a 50rd box of 180gr JHP. Yesterday, that same box cost me $24.50! :eek:

I'm not sure what their 9mm used to cost, but their new price list yesterday showed it at $17.

I'm seriously considering picking up a 9mm to be my regular range gun...or maybe just grab one of the conversion barrels for my Glock 23.

--Bionic - Tapatalk 2--

[JFootin]

I hope that everone who declines to pay these thieving prices, especially from LGSs, should make it clear to them that they will NEVER buy anything from them again, even after the madness and the prices come back down. After dozens and dozens of people tell them this, maybe they will have a change of heart.

[TennSCN]

... Do I hear opportunity knocking for a new ammo manufacturer?

Sourcing the components (in mass) would be a problem...

I saw primers at a 'going out of business' sale that were also twice the cost of 4 months ago.

[Barth]

I'm hopeful that those willing and able to buy weapons and ammo already have.
Limited supply continues to elevate prices.
Depending on what Hitler and his minions do over the rest of the year.
Things could stabilize by next fall.
http://www.holocaustsurvivors.org/photos/hitler_rally_steps+large.jpg

[wyntrout]

WTF??

http://www.cheaperthandirt.com/prod/9mm_Full_Metal_Jacket_Ammo

Wynn:eek:

[Barth]

WTF??

http://www.cheaperthandirt.com/prod/9mm_Full_Metal_Jacket_Ammo

Wynn:eek:

I've stopped checking prices on ammo.
It's unreal and depressing...

[Jules Winnfield]

I live about 5 minutes from the Winchester plant/factory in Illinois, and I do most of my shooting at their range. No range fees, but you have to buy/shoot their ammo, and you can't take any home with you.

Every time I've gone before, it was $17 for a 50rd box of 180gr JHP. Yesterday, that same box cost me $24.50! :eek:

I'm not sure what their 9mm used to cost, but their new price list yesterday showed it at $17.

I'm seriously considering picking up a 9mm to be my regular range gun...or maybe just grab one of the conversion barrels for my Glock 23.

--Bionic - Tapatalk 2--

Dude, u realize most of us would give our left nu_....well, lets just say we'd be happy to switch places with you:)


Sent from my iPhone 5 using Tapatalk

[Ikeo74]

It will only take 7 people buying 70 bricks (35,000 rounds) to use up the whole states daily supply and 2,555 people to use up the your states whole year supply. Do you see a problem here? ;)

[RRP]

I thought a few seconds and asked, "what kinda ammo ya got?" ;)

Good one. Gave me a chuckle.

[QuercusMax]

I tell you guys that the LaserLyte can make up at least half of you "training" shooting.

Yup. That's what I'm doing. At least until the big battery shortage.

[ltxi]

Our house....stocked up extensively late last summer....we go to the range and it's praise the lord and pass the ammunition.

[MaxHedrm]

Hmmm. Someone needs to use Kickstarter to fund a new ammo startup. :) Preferably someone that actually knows what they're doing.

The problem is, that unless you can do it soup to nuts and make your own primers, powder, brass, & bullets, you're still going to have too many constraints. :(

[muggsy]

What would be the investment equipment/costs for hi capacity equipment and what regulations would be required?
Raise money thru sales of stock and set up selling chain from reneges/Manufactures DOWN to Ranges to consumer. No Gov: No LEO sales let the existing guys continue with that....
:amflag:

I doubt that any ammo manufacturer would give up government and/or military contracts and I want my LEOs well supplied.

[muggsy]

At the moment, there is opportunity (sufficient demand) for additional production capacity. But is it sustainable?

I don't know if it's sustainable, but there is a large foreign market and I'm sure that Jocko and I will do our part. :)

[muggsy]

I hope that everone who declines to pay these thieving prices, especially from LGSs, should make it clear to them that they will NEVER buy anything from them again, even after the madness and the prices come back down. After dozens and dozens of people tell them this, maybe they will have a change of heart.

The American public has a very short memory and they will buy from whomever offers the best price. That's why there are no more Mom & Pop hardware stores.

[Ae35]

My question is where's all the Russian ammo ? That stuff was everywhere, now none, and we know the govt. aint buying it, or are they ? Sure seems like the importers would be bring tons of that stuff in. So why aren't they? I know there's all this panic buying, but it just seems like there's more going on. There's a lot of ammo made all over the world, Europe, middle east, etc. You tend to wonder if maybe the govt. isn't letting it in. I'm not a " Tin-foil " guy, I bet there's more to this story than we'll ever know.

[Longitude Zero]

If they could not import before the rush no reson to let them in after. Suprisingly the USA ammo companies can be some of the most protectionist entities out there.

[JustinN]

I really don't think the problem is some sort of government conspiracy to stop ammo. This is fueled by the consumer. I STILL find new ammo - local Bass pro had shopping carts full of ammo show up (they didn't bother putting it on the shelves) and it was GONE in a few minutes. Anytime anyone sees ammo they buy all they can. If you're not there when it shows up, it looks like there was never any around, but it shows up...the problem is it just doesn't last...

[HappyCamper]

Things are so bad...almost sunk to this..:o
"Would you be interested in trading sex for ammo?"
I thought a few seconds and asked, "what kinda ammo ya got?" ;)
I don't care what you all think, that there's funny.

I have to admit I never would have thought I would ever see an ammo shortage like this, but then again, I never thought bottled water would take off. February was empty shelf month but past several weeks seems like I'm seeing some easing, but most was forgien made and I'm talking boxes, not cases. One particular farming supply type store is putting in gun counters.
I still really don't understand the run on .22s. I have never been one to run to the store and buyout the milk and bread when there's snow in the forcast (it's a St. Louis thing) but I guess shortage begets shortage.

[KKing]

I need another hobby. It's about to warm up around these parts, and for me that usually means at least once a week range days. Not this year, there's just no way. I wouldn't say I'm hoarding ammo for SHTF, but I'm not going to pay to replace what I shoot at the unreal prices, which is my normal practice. Normally, I would turn to my .22lr guns for cheap fun....now nonexistent. Same situation, I won't pay these prices to replace what I shoot. Sadly, right now I can shoot my 9mm pistols and carbine cheaper than I can any form of 22lr. The only good news I can think of is with warm weather comes jet ski and boat time, maybe that will pacify me some. Doubtful though

ETA: got an email a few minutes ago that said lucky gunner had some CCI mini mags for .17 cents a round, which isn't great, but I figured I'd order 5 boxes or so, better than the .45 cents a round I've been seeing. Followed the link (and I do mean with haste) and saw it said they had 58 (boxes of 100) in stock. I add 5 to my cart figuring I'd leave the rest for someone else, and by the time I added it to my cart it said "quantity unavailable, item is out of stock", apparently the first person to check out bought it all I'd guess. Either that or there are some serious Internet ninjas, as it only took me 5 seconds or so to try to add those to my cart after I got the email. Oh well, I live to spend money another day

[chrish]

I've found both CCI standard and CCI mini-mag lately at Gander, Sportsmans WH and Sportsmans LQ. In all cases, they are still running <= .10/round. I think I've paid from 7.99 to 9.99 for the standards in 100rd boxes and 7.99 and 8.99 for the mini-mags.

I've YET to run into a brick of either. They are breaking them down still and limiting purchases.

They are trickling in, just have to hit the stores when they open on truck day. Otherwise, hang it up.

[Longitude Zero]

I need another hobby.

Already have one that is almost as expensive Radio Contol Planes/Helicopters.

[Bawanna]

I've been thinking about becoming a Gigolo. Use the money to buy this exorbitantly price ammo.

Definitely gonna put one of them "We reserve the right to refuse service to anyone". Just can't do ugly ya know?

[ltxi]

I've been thinking about becoming a Gigolo. Use the money to buy this exorbitantly price ammo.

Definitely gonna put one of them "We reserve the right to refuse service to anyone". Just can't do ugly ya know?


Well....condition like that, there goes the violet trade.

[ltxi]

I really don't think the problem is some sort of government conspiracy to stop ammo. This is fueled by the consumer. I STILL find new ammo - local Bass pro had shopping carts full of ammo show up (they didn't bother putting it on the shelves) and it was GONE in a few minutes. Anytime anyone sees ammo they buy all they can. If you're not there when it shows up, it looks like there was never any around, but it shows up...the problem is it just doesn't last...

This has been my neighbor's recent experience. He was warned at one store not to leave some he was going to buy on the counter when he wanted to go get a cart 'cause it most likely wouldn't be there when he got back. He's also been picking up bits at time from WalMart....going to the store right after usual delivery times.

[wyntrout]

My local WM had .45 Federal Champion 50-rounds for $20 something... under $21, but no 9mm... or .40... what I was looking for. I have plenty of .45 and more than $15 or $16 a box is out of my price range for range ammo.

One of these days....

Wynn:)

[Bawanna]

Well....condition like that, there goes the violet trade.

Oh good one Itxi! Definitely going on the card. Violets need not apply.

Course ugly and violets are synonyms far as I'm concerned.

Jocko, that means two words that mean the same thing.

[ORSalesRep]

Things are so bad...almost sunk to this..:o

Yesterday I lucked out and was able to buy several cases of ammo. On the way home I stopped at the gas station where a drop-dead gorgeous blonde was filling up her car at the next pump.
She looked at the ammo in the back of my truck and said in a very sexy voice, "I'm a big believer in barter, big boy".
"Would you be interested in trading sex for ammo?"
I thought a few seconds and asked, "what kinda ammo ya got?" ;)

That's AWESOME!!!!

[MC1911]

I have scrimped on fishing for about three years. I will do more of that.

My range time will be down but i have fired up the lead furnace. The Lee 125 RNFP can be sized to use in my 9mm,38 specials ans 357s.

I love my SP101 and i can drop the empties back into my hand to reuse.

Over the past four years when I was at the LGS I bought some primers and powder if nothing caught my eye.

[nmkahrshooter]

I would bet that sport shooting as we know it will end soon.