The Statistics of Self-Defense: Don't Bet Your Life on Averages

[markman]

And, while we are talking about averages, let’s look at the average number of rounds fired in a deadly encounter. Depending upon which source one chooses to study, the average number of rounds fired in a deadly encounter is between two and four. So the guy who likes to bet his life on averages would say that he is good to go with a five-shot, snub-nose revolver with no extra reload.
But, what about the police officer who had to shoot the knife-wielding crook eight times with his .45 ACP before he stopped? Or, we could just examine some of the police shootings that involve 20 (or more) rounds being fired. Misses don’t mean much in a gunfight, no matter how close they are. And, we can’t be assured that the crook, high on dope or wearing body armor, will be impressed when we center punch him two to four times.




The smart defensive shooter will pay little attention to averages as they relate to gunfighting. A gunfight is going to be what it is going to be. Some things we may have control over—like knowing your pistol’s point-of-aim at various distances—but there are other things in that gunfight situation we can’t control. The things we have control over are the items that we need to be giving serious thought to carrying and practicing to deal with as many potential situations as possible. Those “average” components that we cannot change or have any control over will happen, regardless of our designs or desires.

https://www.shootingillustrated.com/articles/2018/7/17/the-statistics-of-self-defense-dont-bet-your-life-on-averages/

[markman]

Now we are back to the original question, how many rounds do you need to stop an attacker? According to Massad Ayoob he states: switch from 5-6 round revolvers to 15-18 or 20 round semi automatics; “5-6 rounds was usually enough… but usually isn’t always.” Massad was referring to law enforcement employment but falls into personal defense as well.

http://americanshootingjournal.com/how-many-rounds-do-i-need-for-concealed-carry/

[markman]

As someone who’s gone through A LOT of news reports dealing with self-defensive shootings, I will say one thing: very rarely does the attacker just collapse immediately. The location of the bullet is actually more important than the caliber. Just recently outside a nightclub in Texas, two brothers self-defensively shot a mugger seven or eight times (http://concealednation.org/2015/12/ccw-in-action-houston-concealed-carriers-unload-on-armed-muggers-why-we-travel-in-packs/) and he still ran away. I don’t doubt some or even many of those shots were “center mass”. It didn’t stop that guy from running. Other incidences I’ve reviewed show a single gunshot was sufficient to stop the attacker.

http://concealednation.org/2016/02/how-many-rounds-are-fired-on-average-in-a-gunfight/

[markman]

Let’s start with the easy question first. If you ever find yourself in a self-defense situation, you’ll quickly realize that you can never have too much spare ammunition.

No survivor of a gunfight has ever said, “I wish I hadn’t carried those extra magazines.”

Should one really bother carrying spare ammunition? The simple – and only – answer is emphatically “Yes!” I have heard and read more people than I care to remember state that they only carry a small compact semi-auto or revolver, no spare ammunition, and laughingly say “if I can’t get it done in six rounds, something’s wrong” or “I deserve what I get” or something equally absurd.


So how much ammo do you need? The fact of the matter is, you will never know how many rounds you need until you need them. You might read someplace that “statistically” the average self-defense encounter involves only two or three rounds fired. The problem is that “statistically” the standard deviation is so large that the average is a pretty meaningless number. It sure would suck to fire your six rounds only to find out you needed a few more.
“If you knew you were going to be in a gunfight, what would you carry?”
“If I knew I was going to be in a gunfight, I wouldn't go!”

One year ago this month, a man named Paul Slater broke into a Georgia woman’s house while her husband was at work and chased her and her two children into a crawl space leading to their attic. When he opened the access door and attempted to enter the attic after them, she emptied her .38 revolver in his direction, hitting her attacker five times in the face and torso. That’s pretty good shooting by anyone’s standards, much less for a frightened woman crouching in a confined space trying to protect her two young boys. That didn’t kill him. She told him to stop or she would shoot him again, knowing that it was an idle threat as her gun was now empty. But fortunately for the family he did stop his attack that day, and after the mother and her sons ran past him to get away he was able to leave the house and drive away. He lived to stand trial.






https://www.ammoland.com/2014/02/ammo-how-much-is-enough-when-carrying-for-self-defense/#axzz63lAyJOid

[markman]

How many shots does it actually take to stop an attack? Maybe one. Maybe 20. It depends on many factors, including shot placement, the physical condition of the attacker, whether or not certain drugs are involved, etc.
Medical examiner Dr. Michael Baden claimed in a public statement about his own autopsy in the Ferguson case that five of the six shots were survivable. It was, in his opinion, one shot to the head that stopped and killed Michael Brown. He also said he believed the head shot was the last shot fired.
So one shot was required, but apparently it took six shots to land the one critical hit.



https://www.secondcalldefense.org/shots-justifiable

[berettabone]

https://www.secondcalldefense.org/shots-justifiable Tell it to a liberal judge...…….

[berettabone]

https://www.shootingillustrated.com/articles/2018/7/17/the-statistics-of-self-defense-dont-bet-your-life-on-averages/ "Depending upon which source one chooses to study."

[berettabone]

How ironic it is that gangbangers can have a multitude of firearms and calibers and a multitude of different types of ammo, sometimes only being able to dig up 2 or 3 bullets at a time for the firearm they have, and they do not seem to have any trouble killing people...………...…………………………………..

[markman]

Absolutely, without a doubt. But the one thing that is consistent with all the studies, lower or higher round count, is that they are based on averages. So there will be some in whatever that study is that fired less rounds and there will be some that fired more, which is how they arrive at the average.


"Depending upon which source one chooses to study."

[markman]

I hope no one here or else where has to be in that position to find out.


Tell it to a liberal judge...…….

[340pd]

If I ever tell tell you I have too much ammo, I am either on fire or swimming.

[DavidR]

If I ever tell tell you I have too much ammo, I am either on fire or swimming.

lol

[King Rat]

https://www.ammoland.com/2014/02/ammo-how-much-is-enough-when-carrying-for-self-defense/#axzz63lAyJOid

And all of that is simply opinion. If that logic were true, then why carry a pistol or revolver at all. Maybe we all should start Carrying AR's with spare mags. I have tried to find every gun related incident in my fairly large city over the past decade. I cannot even recall one that had more than three rounds fired, unless a hood shooting where they were spaying ammo. People seem to focus on how many rounds a gun holds vs how fast they can draw and shoot accurately. Most encounters if not all were close encounters and usually the winner is the first one to place a good shot to center mass. The Bad Guy will normally have the edge and no matter how many rounds the gun has, does not matter much to a guy dead from one shot. Two polls on two different gun forums from Current EDC owners, many with years of Experience showed that over overwhelmingly that most have never had to use their carry gun, and only a very small fraction shot more than than two rounds.
America is the land of more is better in everything we do. A big Gulp is better than a standard cup, a all you can eat is better than a single plate etc.
That said, there are facts and then there is the internet. If you see many reports of Miami FBI style attacks going on in your area where it is common to be in shootouts with a lot of rounds required then for sure get ya a high round count Pistol with a lot of mags. Better yet, start to Carry a AR and learn how to use it. In the meantime, I will practice with my small light weight pistols and revolvers to be fast to the draw and accurate. I will practice "Situational Awareness" more than worry about high round count. (And I don't drink Big Gulps nor All you can eat fast food joints). Get ya a Double Big Mac, a extra Large Fry, a super size drink and a large capacity Pistol. Life is Good!

[JohnR]

Let’s see the bell curve showing non-police self defense shootings, and including the number of assailants. What’s the high end? What percentage needed that many rounds? Were there circumstances that caused that to require additional rounds?

[BirdsThaWord]

I think that if I can carry more rounds, without a huge, bulky, printing pistol, then why not? Again, if you can carry more, then why not do so? With modern, super lightweight ammo (Liberty Civil Defense) I can carry a 12 round mag just as comfortably, and close to the weight of my 7 round CW9 mag loaded standard defense rounds. A P365, (or others compacts/subcompacts) are about the same size as my CW9, yet the numbers lean much better in my favor of having “enough” rounds with something like the P365. That is why my CW9 get’s tossed into the glove box, while the P365 rides my hip (and a LCP rides simultaneously in my pocket). Why carry less?

[BirdsThaWord]

I wanted to satisfy my own curiosity on this, so I weighed them. The loaded Kahr mag, with what I call “standard” defense rounds vs the 365 loaded with Liberty. Only a negligible 2 oz’s heavier with the 365 mag and it’s 5 additional rounds. I would never notice that 2 oz in my pocket, or on my hip. I know, not a fair comparison on ammo, but showing that more rounds can be carried without increasing bulk/weight with these modern micro’s.
So next I weighed each gun as carried. Full mags, round chambered and in it’s holster. Almost twins in weight, but the 365 is smaller. So, I think again why not carry more rounds if you can, without adding weight or size?
16344163451634616347

[markman]

And all of that is simply opinion.


I cannot even recall one that had more than three rounds fired

In that very same article as I posted above:



One year ago this month, a man named Paul Slater broke into a Georgia woman’s house while her husband was at work and chased her and her two children into a crawl space leading to their attic. When he opened the access door and attempted to enter the attic after them, she emptied her .38 revolver in his direction, hitting her attacker five times in the face and torso. That’s pretty good shooting by anyone’s standards, much less for a frightened woman crouching in a confined space trying to protect her two young boys. That didn’t kill him. She told him to stop or she would shoot him again, knowing that it was an idle threat as her gun was now empty. But fortunately for the family he did stop his attack that day, and after the mother and her sons ran past him to get away he was able to leave the house and drive away. He lived to stand trial.